It started innocently enough. Super Bowl props. "Will it rain during the game? Yes +450." I took the yes. It didn't rain. I lost $50 and thought nothing of it.
That was February 2024. It is now January 2026 and I have three weather apps on my phone, a NOAA bookmark folder, and strong opinions about the accuracy of various Doppler radar systems. I am not okay.
The Descent
After the Super Bowl, I discovered that bookmakers offer weather props for other events. Golf tournaments. NASCAR races. Baseball games. The question of whether it will rain at Wrigley Field on a Tuesday in July is apparently something you can bet money on.
Reader, I bet money on it. A lot of money. Over many Tuesdays.
Weather Bets I Have Actually Placed:
- Rain delay at the U.S. Open: +320 (won)
- Snow at Lambeau Field during December game: -150 (won)
- Temperature at Fenway over 85 degrees: +180 (lost)
- Wind speed over 15 mph at a PGA event: +200 (won)
- "Will there be visible lightning during rain delay": +650 (lost, but close)
- First pitch temperature in San Francisco under 58 degrees: -110 (pushed)
Total weather bets (2024-2025): 147
Record: 71-68-8
Net profit: +$423
Hours spent analyzing weather: Approximately "too many"
The Apps
I don't trust one weather app anymore. One weather app is for civilians. I have:
My Weather App Arsenal:
1. Weather Underground - For the hyperlocal data
2. Windy - For the wind pattern visualizations
3. MyRadar - For the Doppler radar overlays
4. NOAA Weather - For the official government forecasts
5. Dark Sky (RIP) - I still mourn this one daily
I cross-reference them. If three out of four say rain, I bet rain. If they're split 2-2, I dive into the pressure systems. If the dew point is within 3 degrees of the temperature, precipitation becomes more likely. I know this now. I didn't want to know this. The betting made me learn it.
The Conversations I've Had
Normal people talk about weather as small talk. "Nice day, huh?" "Yeah, beautiful." That's it. That's the whole conversation.
I can't do that anymore. Someone says "nice day" and I'm like "Yeah, high pressure system coming in from the northwest, should hold through the weekend, but there's a 30% chance of isolated showers Sunday afternoon that the models are disagreeing on, and honestly I think the Euro model is more reliable than the GFS in this region so I'm betting the over on sunshine hours."
People don't invite me places anymore.
"Why do you know what a dew point is?" - My friend Marcus, before he stopped being my friend
The Morning Routine
I wake up at 6 AM. Not because I'm a morning person. Because I need to check the overnight model runs before the lines move.
6:00 AM: Check European model
6:15 AM: Check GFS model
6:30 AM: Compare with NAM model for regional accuracy
6:45 AM: Look at ensemble forecasts to assess model confidence
7:00 AM: Place bets before lines adjust
7:15 AM: Question my life choices
7:20 AM: Continue anyway
The Intervention
My girlfriend tried to have a conversation with me about it. She said, "I think you might be spending too much time on weather."
I said, "Did you know that the barometric pressure is dropping? Historically, when pressure drops below 29.8 inHg in the Midwest during autumn, there's a 67% chance of precipitation within 18 hours. I have money on the Bears/Vikings game going under because wet conditions-"
She left the room. We haven't discussed weather since.
Rock Bottom
I hit rock bottom last August when I drove two hours to a different city to "personally verify atmospheric conditions" before a baseball game I had weather props on.
I stood in the parking lot of the stadium with a handheld anemometer I bought on Amazon, measuring wind speed, while security asked me what I was doing. I said I was "doing research." They asked me to leave. The under hit. I won $180. I still think about whether it was worth the gas money.
It was. Barely.
The Future
I'm not going to stop. I've accepted this. Some people are into fantasy football. Some people are into crypto. I'm into predicting whether it will rain at sporting events and betting moderate amounts of money on it.
It's not the most destructive hobby. I'm up overall. I've learned a lot about meteorology. I can now predict weather better than most people, which is a useless skill in every context except gambling.
If you want to get into weather betting, here are my tips:
1. Trust the European model
2. Ignore the 10-day forecast - it's worthless
3. Dew point matters more than humidity
4. Coastal forecasts are harder than inland
5. Don't become like me
It's supposed to snow in Green Bay next Sunday. The line on "will there be visible snow during the broadcast" is +140. I'm hammering it.
I need help.