Listen, I have tried very hard this offseason to maintain the illusion that Major League Baseball is a competitive sport where multiple teams have a reasonable chance of winning. I have looked at the Orioles adding Pete Alonso and thought, "Good for them." I have watched the Cubs sign Alex Bregman and nodded approvingly. I have even pretended the Mets getting Bo Bichette was somehow going to matter.
And then the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker for $240 million and I am once again reminded that baseball is just the Harlem Globetrotters versus a bunch of guys from accounting.
Let me paint you a picture of the 2026 Dodgers lineup: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and now Kyle Tucker. That is not a baseball team. That is a video game roster after you turn off the salary cap. That is what happens when you give a child unlimited coins in MLB The Show.
The contract includes opt-outs after years two and three, because of course it does. Kyle Tucker looked at $240 million and said, "I mean, this is fine for now, but what if I want MORE money in two years?" And the Dodgers said, "Sure, whatever you want, king." Meanwhile the Oakland Athletics are wondering if they can afford to keep the lights on during day games.
Here is the best part: The Dodgers are going to pay approximately $120 million in luxury tax penalties just for the privilege of having Tucker in 2026. They are paying more in TAXES than the entire payroll of three other MLB teams. And they simply do not care. Andrew Friedman probably laughed when someone mentioned it.
I called my therapist to discuss my feelings about competitive balance in baseball. She asked me to define "competitive balance" and I had to admit I could not, because it does not exist. The Dodgers have won two of the last three World Series and just added the best remaining free agent to a roster that already had the MVP. This is fine. Everything is fine.
My bookie told me the Dodgers opened at +280 to win the World Series. After the Tucker signing, they moved to +220. By spring training they will probably be -150 and we will all just accept it because what are we going to do, bet on the Rockies?
Final thought: Tucker spent last year with the Cubs hitting .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs in 136 games. Good numbers. Now he gets to hit behind Ohtani and in front of Freeman with the short porch at Dodger Stadium. He is going to hit 40 home runs and we are all going to pretend this is surprising. I am already exhausted.
Balls Deep International does not provide gambling advice, but if we did, it would be "just take the Dodgers and try not to think about it too hard."