Breaking news from Wall Street: The S&P 500 just hit another record high. The Dow closed at 49,442 points. Nvidia is up 35% because apparently everyone needs AI chips to make their toaster think for itself. Goldman Sachs is posting record profits. Everything is wonderful. I am thriving.
I am also eating instant ramen for the fourth consecutive dinner because groceries cost more than my retirement account.
Let me explain something about this economy: The market goes up when companies fire people. The market goes up when rent increases. The market goes up when your health insurance denies your claim for the third time. The market goes up when eggs cost seven dollars and CEOs explain that inflation is "transitory" while buying their fourth yacht. The market is not your friend.
Everyone I know is now a financial expert. My coworker Kevin, who once asked me if Bitcoin was "like a Nintendo thing," is now telling me about semiconductor supply chains and TSMC's quarterly earnings. Kevin doesn't know what TSMC stands for. Kevin thinks Taiwan is "somewhere near California." But Kevin is up 18% this year so Kevin is a genius and I should listen to Kevin.
Here's what they don't tell you: Wall Street analysts are predicting the S&P will hit 7,500 to 8,000 by year end. Deutsche Bank says 8,000. Bank of America says 7,100. These are the same people who predicted 2024 would be "a difficult year for equities" while stocks rallied 24%. They have no idea. Nobody has any idea. We are all just throwing darts at a board covered in money and pretending there's a system.
My favorite part of every market update is when they explain why stocks went up or down. "Markets rose on optimism about AI spending." "Markets fell on concerns about interest rates." "Markets recovered because investors realized the thing they were scared of yesterday actually doesn't matter today." It's astrology for people with finance degrees. Mercury is in retrograde but also NVIDIA beat earnings so everything is fine.
I called my bookie to ask if I could bet on the Dow Jones hitting 50,000 by March. He said that's "not a thing" and then asked why I haven't paid him for the Eagles game yet. I explained that I was waiting for my portfolio to recover. He did not find this funny. Neither did my landlord when I tried the same explanation for rent.
The reality: Boeing is up 12% this year despite planes literally falling apart mid-flight. Intel is up 129% despite making chips nobody wants to buy. The market has completely disconnected from the physical universe where things happen to actual people. It's just numbers going up forever because money printer go brrr and private equity needs somewhere to park its yacht money.
Balls Deep International does not provide financial advice. But if we did, it would be: "Just buy the dip until you run out of dip money, then cry into your overpriced oat milk while Kevin explains semiconductor valuations."