I've been seeing Dr. Martinez for about eight months now. We've covered a lot of ground. My childhood. My relationships. My "unhealthy relationship with validation." Normal therapy stuff.
But nothing prepared her for the session where I tried to explain why I was stressed about whether to hedge my Super Bowl futures bet.
The Setup
Back in September, I put $200 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +800. Standard degenerate behavior. By January, they'd made the playoffs and my ticket was worth approximately $1,800 if they won.
The problem was, I had to decide: let it ride, or hedge by betting against them in the playoffs to guarantee profit regardless of outcome?
This is, to a normal person, not a real problem. To me, it was consuming my every waking thought.
The Session
Dr. Martinez started the session like she always does: "How are you feeling this week?"
I said: "Conflicted. I'm trying to decide if I should hedge."
She wrote something down. Probably "patient is hedging emotions again." She loves metaphors.
Dr. M: Hedging emotions is a common defense mechanism. What are you trying to protect yourself from?
Me: No, like... actual hedging. With money.
Dr. M: ...
Me: I have a futures bet on the Chiefs. If they win the Super Bowl, I make $1,600 profit. But if they lose in the playoffs, I lose my original $200. So I could bet against them now to lock in profit either way.
Dr. M: [long pause]
Dr. M: You're gambling.
Me: I prefer "speculating on athletic outcomes."
The Explanation
She asked me to explain how hedging works. This was my mistake. I should have just said "never mind" and talked about my mother. Instead, I spent twenty minutes of our fifty-minute session explaining betting math.
What I Tried to Explain:
"Okay, so if I bet $300 on the Ravens to beat the Chiefs at +160, and the Ravens win, I get $480 plus my stake back. That's $780 total. Combined with losing my $200 Chiefs future, I'm still up $580. But if the Chiefs win, I lose the $300 hedge but my futures ticket is worth $1,800, so I'm up $1,300. Either way, I profit. The question is: do I want a guaranteed $580, or do I want to risk it for $1,300?"
Dr. Martinez stared at me for a full fifteen seconds. I could see her reconsidering her career choices.
"So you're asking me... to help you decide... how to bet?" - Dr. Martinez, regretting everything
The Deeper Conversation
She tried to redirect. She's good at that.
Dr. M: Let's explore why this decision is causing you so much stress. What does it represent to you?
Me: It represents $1,300 if the Chiefs win and $580 if they lose.
Dr. M: Beyond the money.
Me: There is nothing beyond the money. The money is the thing.
Dr. M: Is it possible that the gambling is filling an emotional need? Perhaps a need for excitement? Control?
Me: It's possible, sure. But right now, the gambling is filling a financial need. A need for $1,300. Or $580. I genuinely can't decide.
Dr. M: [writing furiously]
The Whiteboard
I asked if I could use her whiteboard to diagram the scenarios. She said no. I asked again. She sighed and said fine.
I spent seven minutes drawing a decision tree. Chiefs win scenarios. Chiefs lose scenarios. Hedge amounts. Expected value calculations. She watched in what I can only describe as horrified fascination.
When I finished, I stepped back and said, "So what do you think?"
She said, "I think we need to talk about why you need external validation for financial decisions."
I said, "I just need someone to tell me whether to hedge."
She said, "That's not what therapy is for."
I said, "Then what am I paying you $150 an hour for?"
The session ended early.
The Outcome
For the record: I didn't hedge. The Chiefs lost in the AFC Championship. I lost my $200 futures bet. If I had hedged, I would have made $580.
I brought this up in our next session. Dr. Martinez said, "How does that make you feel?"
I said, "Like I should have hedged."
She said, "That's the first honest emotional statement you've made in eight months."
What I've Learned
I've learned that therapy and gambling don't mix. Not because gambling is unhealthy (it is), but because therapists don't understand expected value, and that's frustrating.
I've also learned that Dr. Martinez is not the right person to help me with betting decisions. She's suggested I see an "addiction specialist." I've suggested she learn basic probability. We've agreed to disagree.
Next session, we're going to talk about my "avoidance behaviors." I'm planning to explain arbitrage betting. She doesn't know this yet. I think it'll be productive.
I have a new futures bet on the 49ers for Super Bowl LXI. I'm already stressed about whether to hedge.
Progress takes time.